Optimism and the Human Spirit
For several days we have been consuming data, research reports, financial news flow, economic releases among other information. Below we share a few takeaways from our synthesis. Before we get to those, however, we want to offer some optimism regarding the way forward. The human spirit will prevail over the bone headedness of our elected leaders. A virus will not defeat it. It is too powerful a force to be held down for long. As such, our Republic will prevail intact. In fact, we may even come out with a higher appreciation for what matters most in our lives. Less consumerism, social media, narcissism, and instant gratification. More family, simple joys, family meals, and conversation. So, as we rise to our new equilibrium let us all reflect on the good in our lives and those who make it so. Tell those who matter most how you feel about them and embrace the joy it offers. Be positive. Focusing on the ten percent of the glass not full is to miss life.
Now that I have left the Socialist Republic of Virginia and reside in a state that respects individual liberties it is far easier to be more optimistic. Federalism allows us citizens to harbor wherever we feel we can best live our lives unrestricted and unmolested. Virginia’s political leadership will never again trespass on my rights as an individual. God Bless America.
Pandemic Economic Reality
The capital markets have gotten way ahead of reality. What is currently being priced into the market is a sharp snap back in economic growth. We don’t see that as a realistic assumption. Delusional, but not realistic. The economic damage as a result of heterogenous and misguided policy will be far reaching. It will also not be remedied by profligate spending. Both monetary and fiscal policies have misspent trillions on a problem never properly defined. Small businesses, particularly those in the service industry, will most likely never recover. Perverting the incentive to work with short term handouts has only exacerbated the economics of the idiotic pandemic policies. Bankruptcies, unemployment, and debt levels will increase to levels never seen in our nation’s history. Moreover, our economy was already extremely fragile and financial markets were overvalued probably like never before as the current policies were implemented. A decade of massive liquidity insertions made it so. The capital markets have simply not digested that reality and have not corrected meaningfully. As they do, we believe the investment opportunities will be many.
Lockdown and Sociology
Inequality across the global society has been a hot topic at least for the past decade. One of the key takeaways from the fear based social isolation policies is that economic inequalities are going to increase even further. Those that are most vulnerable will suffer non-linearly relative to those who are more fortunate. Students without technological resources suffer the most. Those that are from broken homes with no parental oversight especially so. This will have educational consequences that will alter the trajectory of millions of kids forever. How many kids will choose not to return at all? How many will fall so far behind they simply give up? How many will become so discouraged they become social outcasts? The questions go on and too few are trying to answer them. This is true across primary, secondary, and higher education. Our idiot politicians are just not considering these consequences.
Primary and secondary students need social interaction, they need to be held accountable, structure, and purpose. Isolating this generation of kids is especially problematic. They are the most coddled and fragile group of young people our country has ever produced. To isolate them and remove the necessary societal constraints placed upon them will make them even more fragile and incapable of dealing with adversity. Do this for too long and impulsive decision making may produce tragic results. We fear that teen suicides will increase as a result of the lockdown. Kids need outlets to deal with life’s perturbations. Current policies have removed that outlet. It must end for the sake of our children.
Optimism, Part Two
Eventually, even our elected idiots will reverse the policies and we will return to life. Hard evidence will conquer ego and they will be forced to eliminate all this nonsense. The sooner this happens the better for all of us. The decision to admit an error in judgement has become politicized. However, the beauty of politicians is that they are infinitely replaceable. It’s an election year. Remember their sheer stupidity when voting. As a country we will deal with the economic and social disturbances they created. We have overcome far bigger challenges and this time we will literally have to do so despite our political class. History has shown this over and over. A Constitutional Convention to amend the constitution to include term limits, a balance budget, flat tax, and strict restrictions on lobbyists would be a turn for the better. We can dream. Once again, God Bless America.